CHICAGO — Brett Greenberg, the Washington Wizards’ baby-faced assistant general manager, leaned forward in his seat, realizing that his organization was now one ping-pong ball away from landing Victor Wembanyama. What’s more, the Wizards suddenly had better than a 50 percent chance at securing the right to draft the 7-foot-4 French phenom, who has inspired breathless comparisons to past teenage basketball prodigies such as LeBron James and Lew Alcindor. Just one more ping-pong ball.
In the bowels of a byzantine convention center in downtown Chicago, history came so close to happening, but didn’t, for the Wizards.
Greenberg and 13 other representatives were whisked through a metal detector and into a heavily guarded room where the NBA conducts its annual draft lottery an hour before ESPN’s nationally televised broadcast of the results. Phones, smartwatches and other electronic devices are barred from the room, forcing the small collection of team executives, league staffers and media members to track the results with pen and paper. To maintain suspense for the viewing audience, no one is allowed out of the room — not even for a bathroom break — until after the television broadcast is complete.
The lottery drawing process is straightforward: 14 numbered ping-pong balls are placed into a hopper. To determine which of the 14 lottery teams gets the No. 1 pick, four ping-pong balls are drawn. The 1,001 possible four-digit combinations are divvied up based on each team’s regular season record.
The Wizards finished the season with a 35-47 record, giving them 67 possible four-digit combinations. That 6.7 percent chance to get the No. 1 pick gave Washington the eighth-best odds among the 14 teams present. Teams with worse records had better odds to land the top pick, while teams with better records had worse odds.
NBA officials distributed an eight-page packet with all 1,001 possible four-digit combinations listed by team. Washington’s section comprised slightly more than half of page seven. As Greenberg surveyed the list, he realized that low numbers were bad for Washington: None of its combinations included 1, 2, 3 or 4.
The drawing commenced with three very favorable numbers for Washington: 14, 5 and 8. With just one ball left to be selected out of 11 still in the hopper, the odds had swung dramatically in the Wizards’ favor. Remarkably, Washington held six of the remaining winning combinations.
If the final number selected was 7, 9, 10, 11, 12 or 13, the Wizards would get the chance to select the 19-year-old Wembanyama in the June 22 draft. In that brief moment before the final ball was selected, Washington’s shot at getting the top selection had skyrocketed from 6.7 percent to 54.5 percent. Better than a coin flip.
Unfortunately for Washington, a dreaded low number emerged as the final digit: 2. The 14-5-8-2 combination was held by the San Antonio Spurs, who will surely add Wembanyama’s name alongside their two previous top overall picks: Hall of Fame centers David Robinson (1987) and Tim Duncan (1997).
“There’s a special relationship between France and the Spurs because of Tony [Parker] and Boris [Diaw],” Wembanyama said Tuesday from Paris, referencing his two countrymen who won championships in San Antonio. “I know half of the country, if not the whole country, wanted the Spurs to have the first pick. Not to brag about it, but I knew what was going to happen. I actually recorded myself saying it this morning, walking to practice. The universe told me.”
Spurs General Manager Brian Wright, seated one row in front of Greenberg, celebrated with a subdued fist pump and, later, a wide smile and congratulatory handshakes from the rival team representatives. San Antonio had entered the night with a 14 percent chance at the No. 1 pick.
“You’re in the back with no phones and no way to communicate,” Wright said. “That adds to the level of anxiety. The numbers start to come up and you’re searching through the pages to see if you have it, then you realize it’s you. It’s just an incredible amount of excitement. Because of the anxiety, I haven’t eaten all day. If I pass out, excuse me.”
Greenberg, who oversees basketball analytics and salary cap management for Washington, studiously tracked the lottery results on a notepad. He understood immediately how close the Wizards had come and recounted the 6-for-11 chance to Indiana Pacers President Kevin Pritchard, who sat to his right.
As it turned out, misery loved company: Pritchard would have landed the No. 1 pick if the final digit had been a 6 instead of a 2. Across the room, Portland Trail Blazers assistant general manager Sergi Oliva realized that he would have won had the last digit been a 3.
Remarkably, though, the Wizards were the only team to have more than one winning combination when it came down to the final digit: 1 belonged to the Houston Rockets, 2 belonged to the victorious Spurs, 3 to the Blazers, 4 to the Orlando Magic, 6 to the Pacers and all the rest to the Wizards.
Washington has twice claimed the top lottery spot — Kwame Brown in 2001 and John Wall in 2010 — but this year was different because of the excitement that has surrounded Wembanyama since his breathtaking performances in two showcase games outside Las Vegas this past October. Since then, “Wemby” has averaged 21.6 points, 10.5 rebounds and 3.1 blocks for Metropolitans 92 in France’s top professional league.
Several NBA team executives believe Wembanyama’s economic impact on the Spurs could surpass $1 billion during his career, once ticket and merchandise sales, sponsorship revenue and the franchise’s valuation are taken into account.
“He will never play in a game that’s not sold out,” Pritchard predicted. “I knew we had one [potential winning ping-pong combination]. I got really excited. We’ve never seen a player like Wembanyama. He is whatever he wants to become. There is no comparison. A unicorn but more.”
Oliva, the Trail Blazers executive, wasn’t crestfallen after his near miss because Portland later jumped up to claim the No. 3 pick. When he returned to the lottery stage, he was warmly received by Trail Blazers General Manager Joe Cronin and team president Dewayne Hankins.
“You have to go home happy,” Oliva said. “You can’t blame the process or the balls. We’ve got a great asset [with the No. 3 pick].”
Washington wasn’t as lucky as San Antonio or even Portland. After missing out on Wembanyama, Greenberg sat and watched the rest of the lottery drawing play out. The Charlotte Hornets landed the second pick, Portland got third and the Houston Rockets earned the fourth selection. That left Washington in the same spot it started: eighth.
The past 10 players to be taken eighth range from busts to quality rotation players: Dyson Daniels, Franz Wagner, Obi Toppin, Jaxson Hayes, Collin Sexton, Frank Ntilikina, Marquese Chriss, Stanley Johnson, Nik Stauskas and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. While Wagner has all-star potential, there isn’t a billion-dollar global icon in the bunch.
Seated on the television stage elsewhere in the McCormick Place convention center and unaware of what exactly had transpired in the drawing room, Wizards Coach Wes Unseld Jr. kept a stone face when deputy commissioner Mark Tatum revealed Washington would select eighth.
Minutes later, Spurs managing partner Peter J. Holt, pounded his table, joyously shouted, “Let’s Go!” and raced to hug Tatum once San Antonio was announced as the winner.
“A little disappointing,” Unseld said. “One bright spot is we didn’t move back. We fell essentially where we were slotted, and we take some degree of solace in that.”
Greenberg, a Maryland native who grew up a Wizards fan, declined to comment on how close the franchise had come to landing a savior, citing the ongoing search for former general manager Tommy Sheppard’s replacement. Considering the heartbreaking circumstances, there wasn’t much anyone could have said.
Ava Wallace contributed to this report.